Short answer: Slightly bullish but volatile. The near-term bias looks tilted toward higher prices this week, but expect quick rallies and short-lived pullbacks — so trade carefully or stagger physical purchases.
Why the upside bias exists
- Global spot gold recently broke the $4,000/oz mark on fresh safe-haven demand, central-bank buying and large ETF inflows — all factors that support further gains.
- Market pricing now discounts a higher chance of Fed policy easing (or later cuts) than it did a few months ago — that lowers real yields and lifts gold’s appeal.
Why a pullback or choppy trading is still possible
- Several houses and technical analysts warn of short-term profit-taking and technical resistance after the rapid run-up; some recommend “sell on rise” tactics for traders. Volatility and quick corrections are likely.
Current prices and a realistic trading range (this week)
- Latest spot (global): ≈ $4,017–$4,032 per troy ounce (which equals roughly $129–$130 per gram).
- UAE retail/market: around AED 474–475 per gram (retail premiums can add a few dirhams/gram). Expect local daily rates to follow the global move closely.
- Probable range this week (price-action scenario): $4,000 — $4,150 / oz (≈ AED 472 — AED 490 per gram) assuming current drivers persist; volatility can create intraday breaches either side.
What to watch (short-term catalysts)
- US economic data & Fed commentary (inflation prints, payrolls) — will move real yields and the dollar.
- ETF flows and central-bank buying announcements — sustained inflows = stronger upside.
- Geopolitical or financial shocks — quick support if risk sentiment worsens.
- Local demand/premiums in the UAE and India (festive season buying) that can lift physical prices.
Practical advice (UAE perspective)
- Short-term trader: consider scaling in/out and using tight stops; a “sell some on strong spikes” approach makes sense given technical warnings.
- Investor (6–12 months+): the structural case (central-bank buying, lower real yields) supports holding — dollar-cost averaging reduces timing risk.
- Buying jewellery/physical gold in UAE: watch local premiums (typically a few dirhams/gram) and avoid panic buys on the first day of a large rally — you may find a small dip within days.
